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| #880207 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 PM 21.Nov.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 400 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016 Since the strengthening episode this morning, visible and microwave satellite imagery shows that Otto has not become much better organized. Maintenance issues have caused the cancellation of this afternoon`s aerial reconnaissance mission. The initial intensity estimate is 45 kt based on data from an earlier scatterometer overpass, and above the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The upper-level outflow is restricted over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation, probably due to continued south-southeasterly vertical shear. Strengthening to a hurricane seems likely, however, and the official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. There remains a lot of uncertainty as to whether Otto will survive crossing Central America. The official forecast shows the system as a remnant low over the east Pacific, as suggested by the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met. office model runs. There has been little movement of the tropical cyclone today, while Otto remains in an environment of weak steering currents. The global models show a mid-level high pressure area gradually building to the north of the storm over the next several days. This should cause Otto to begin to move slowly westward within 48 hours, with a continued westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed in the latter part of the period. The official track forecast is close to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 11.3N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 11.1N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 11.1N 79.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 11.1N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 11.1N 81.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 11.2N 83.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 11.2N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z 11.2N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |
