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| #880334 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 AM 23.Nov.2016) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 400 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016 The satellite presentation of Otto has not changed much overnight, as deep convection continues to burst near the estimated center position in a small ragged CDO pattern. The latest Dvorak estimates are T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that will be the intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is already en route to investigate Otto later this morning. Vertical shear, currently analyzed at 15-20 kt, should lessen a little bit in the next 12 to 24 h, but given the ragged nature of the system right now, only modest strengthening is expected before landfall. Weakening is then forecast through 48 hours while the center moves across Central America. Once Otto reaches the eastern Pacific, gradual weakening is expected to continue due to increasing shear and a drier atmospheric environment. In fact, the 00Z GFS and UKMET model runs both show the circulation of Otto dissipating in 4-5 days, and the NHC forecast now shows a remnant low by the end of the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 72 hours and follows the weakening trend of the global models after that time. Otto is moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 290/04, although it has been difficult to pinpoint the center overnight. The mid-level ridge currently centered north of Otto will build westward and amplify during the forecast period. As a result, Otto should turn westward and accelerate in the short term, bringing the center to the coast in about 36 hours. Later in the period, a motion south of due west is indicated as the mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern Pacific. The latest official forecast is slightly north of and slower than the previous one through landfall, and then has been adjusted southward and faster late in the period. The new NHC track is closest to the FSU Superensemble through 72 hours and is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS after that time. Based on the latest forecast, tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.9N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 11.1N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 11.2N 82.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 11.3N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0600Z 11.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 26/0600Z 10.0N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 9.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 10.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan |
