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| #880381 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 23.Nov.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 400 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016 There has not been much overall change to the Otto`s satellite presentation today. While the convection temporarily weakened this morning, thunderstorm activity has rebuilt near the center during the afternoon. Satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 65 kt, so the initial wind speed will remain 60 kt. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft should be in Otto this evening to obtain a better estimate. The GFS and the ECMWF models continue to insist that shear near Otto should decrease this evening and tomorrow due to the nearby upper-level flow changing to a more easterly direction. Thus Otto still has the chance to become a hurricane again before landfall on Thursday, and the official forecast reflects this scenario. Otto should abruptly weaken after landfall, with a more gradual weakening anticipated over the eastern Pacific due to increasing easterly shear. The intensity guidance is showing a slower demise of Otto at long range, so the intensity forecast has been boosted slightly from the previous one at days 3 and 4. Otto is finally on the move, with the latest satellite fixes indicating a westward motion at about 6 kt. A strengthening mid-level ridge to the north of Otto should force the storm to move a bit faster to the west on Thursday, with an even faster south-of-west motion forecast over the weekend. Very few changes were required to the track prediction on this advisory since the model guidance remains in very good agreement. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.2N 81.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 11.3N 82.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 11.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 10.9N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1800Z 10.5N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 26/1800Z 9.5N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 9.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 10.5N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake |
