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| #880445 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:42 AM 24.Nov.2016) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 1000 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane penetrated the eye of Otto around 1200 UTC this morning and indicated that the hurricane was intensifying. The estimated central pressure dropped to 976 mb and the flight-level wind at 700 mb peaked at 108 kt while the SFMR winds reached 90 kt. Since that time, satellite imagery showed that the hurricane cloud pattern has become better organized with a distinct eye in both convectional and microwave imagery, and the Data-T numbers reached 5.5 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis, the initial intensity has been set at 95 kt. There is an opportunity for some additional strengthening before Otto makes landfall during the next several hours. However, weakening should begin after the eye moves farther inland across Central America. Otto is expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific in about 12 to 24 h as a tropical storm. Otto should continue to weaken as it moves over the eastern pacific given that strong shear is forecast to prevail in that region, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Otto is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is trapped within easterly flow associated with a strong high pressure to the north, and since this high is forecast to persist, the hurricane should continue on a general west to west-southwest track for the next 3 days. After that time, a much weaker Otto should turn to the west-northwest around the western edge of the high. The track guidance is very consistent with this scenario and there is no need to deviate from the previous NHC forecast. The forecast track continues to be very close to the multi-model consensus. NHC thanks the crew of the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters for flying and providing valuable data on Thanksgiving Day. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 11.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.8N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1200Z 10.3N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 26/0000Z 9.8N 89.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 9.5N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 9.0N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 10.0N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 11.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila |
