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| #8849 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 16.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 2100Z THU SEP 16 2004 AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 350SE 250SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.0W AT 16/2100Z...INLAND AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 87.1W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.5N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.6N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.3N 82.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.3N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 35.0N 80.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
