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| #8850 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 16.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/7 AS JEANNE CONTINUES TO EDGE INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DESPITE ITS TREK OVER LAND...IT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE VISIBLE ON THE SAN JUAN NWS RADAR WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED HOWEVER...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE RIGHT-LEANING GFS AND LEFT-LEANING GFDL MODELS. THIS AFTERNOON...THE GFS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTED EASTWARD...SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWING THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TO DEFLECT JEANNE'S TRACK TO THE RIGHT IN 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS ARE EXPECTE TO PREVENT JEANNE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. WITH THE FIVE DAY FORECAST POINT NEAR THE U.S. COASTLINE...THIS MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE FIVE DAY NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 375 MILES...IN OTHER WORDS...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO BE SURE WHAT PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY JEANNE. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AROUND JEAN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGHLY DIVERGENT FLOW THAT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING AFTER JEANNE CLEARS HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.0N 69.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 19.5N 70.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 20.4N 72.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 21.4N 73.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.5N 75.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 25.0N 77.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 28.5N 78.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 32.0N 80.5W 80 KT |
