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| #8851 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 16.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 58 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE IVAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS FROM BIRMINGHAM SHOW 50-65 KT ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. IVAN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY ABOUT 72 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN WILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR... AND THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD BY 72 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR BEING JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL GO AFTER 72 HR. IVAN WILL REMAIN A MAJOR RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 33.1N 87.0W 50 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 17/0600Z 34.5N 85.9W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/1800Z 35.6N 84.3W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/0600Z 36.3N 82.2W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1800Z 36.3N 80.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/1800Z 35.0N 80.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/1800Z...INLAND |
