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| #888284 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 20.Apr.2017) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012017 1100 PM AST Thu Apr 20 2017 Despite increasing involvement with a frontal zone, Arlene continues to produce organized convection in infrared imagery and to show good low-level organization in microwave imagery. A partial ASCAT overpass showed a few 40 kt vectors well to the northeast of the center, and based on this the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. Unfortunately, the scatterometer data did not cover the central core and could not answer the question of whether the storm still has a closed circulation. Based on the available data, Arlene remains a tropical storm for this advisory. However, it could become extratropical, lose convection and become post-tropical, or degenerate into a trough at any time during the next 12 to 24 hours. The official forecast has the system degenerating to a post-tropical low in 12 hours and then dissipating as it is absorbed into a baroclinic low. The initial motion is 305/24. Arlene is being steered by the aforementioned deep-layer baroclinic low centered near 36N 48W, and the tropical cyclone, or its remnants, is expected to move in a cyclonic loop around this low for the next few days. Tropical storms in April are rare and Arlene is only the second one observed in this month during the satellite era. It should be noted, however, that this type of storm was practically impossible to detect prior to the weather satellite era. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 39.4N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 40.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
