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| #8911 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 PM 16.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 0300Z FRI SEP 17 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 33.9W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 33.9W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 33.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.7N 35.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.1N 37.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.5N 39.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.2N 41.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 33.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART |
