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| #8917 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 16.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 59 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF IVAN HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST SURFACE WINDS REPORTS HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN AROUND 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/12. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN WILL GRADUALLY CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD...AND DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT... A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WHICH WILL ACT TO BLOCK IVAN AND TURN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. SINCE THE REMNANT IVAN CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT...AT LEAST IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... A MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS LIKELY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION ON IVAN. FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT...FRIDAY MORNING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 34.3N 86.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 35.2N 85.2W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 18/0000Z 35.9N 83.1W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/1200Z 36.0N 81.4W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 19/0000Z 35.3N 81.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 20/0000Z 34.0N 83.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND |
