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| #892607 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 19.Jun.2017) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.4N 54.5W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF TRINIDAD ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM ESE OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Trinidad * Tobago * Grenada A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 8.4 North, longitude 54.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves through the Windward Islands tonight and Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and additional development is likely during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), mainly northwest through northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach portions of the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
