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| #892679 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:55 PM 19.Jun.2017) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 ...DISTURBANCE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 89.2W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Intracoastal City to High Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 89.2 West. The system has been stationary during the past few hours. However, a motion toward the north-northwest is expected to resume later tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the disturbance will move toward the Louisiana coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system during the next day or two, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from reconnaissance aircraft and nearby ships is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through Wednesday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
