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| #892695 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 PM 19.Jun.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 This evening`s satellite presentation shows an improved cloud pattern with a small central dense overcast feature developing just to the north of the circulation center. Earlier microwave imagery and this afternoon`s aircraft reconnaissance fix indicate that the vertical structure of the cyclone is tilted toward the north due to the increasing southerly shear. No change in the current satellite intensity estimates from the previous advisory and the initial intensity remains at 35 kt. Interaction with the coast of Venezuela and persistent southerly shear produced by a mid-Atlantic trough digging into the central Caribbean Sea should initiate a weakening trend during the next 24 hours, or so. The large-scale models continue to show Bret dissipating over the Central Caribbean in about 2 days and the official forecast follows suit. The intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the IVCN consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be 285/20 kt, a little slower than 6 hours ago. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A well-established mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of Bret should steer the system generally west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. Afterward, a more westward track is likely while a weaker, more shallow system moves within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 10.0N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 11.0N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 12.1N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.8N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 13.5N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
