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| #892723 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 20.Jun.2017) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 90.1W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Cameron, Louisiana to Intracoastal City. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Cameron to High Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 90.1 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system during the next day or two, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form during that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1001.7 mb (29.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning. STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
