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| #892727 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 AM 20.Jun.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 Bret continues to have a fairly well-organized appearance on satellite imagery, but the presentation on radar from Trinidad and Venezuela is not so impressive, with a lack of well-defined banding features. The structure of the cyclone continues to be characterized by a northward tilt of the vortex with height, so the center is estimated to be located near the southern side of the CDO. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is the mean of Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB. The intensity forecast reasoning remains about the same as before. No significant short-term strengthening seems likely while the circulation interacts with Venezuela today. In 24 hours or so, a weakening trend should commence due to strong south-southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over the Caribbean Sea. The global models continue to be in good agreement that the system will dissipate over the west-central Caribbean in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus, IVCN. The forward motion has slowed just a bit from yesterday and is now around 290/18 kt. There continues to be little change to the track forecast philosophy. The flow on the southern side of a well-defined mid-level subtropical ridge should steer the cyclone on a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple of days. The official track forecast lies between the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 10.6N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 11.5N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 12.4N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 13.3N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 13.6N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
