Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #892758 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 20.Jun.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 The cloud pattern associated with Bret is becoming somewhat elongated due to southerly wind shear, and consequently, T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased a little bit. However, Bret produced sustained surface winds of 40 kt when it passed south of Grenada several hours ago. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt in this advisory, but these winds are occuring only to the north of the center. The intensity forecast remains unchanged, and the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves toward a hostile environment of strong southerly shear caused by an upper-trough in the central Caribbean Sea. Bret will most likely degenerate into a low or an open trough in a day or so, if not sooner. This is consistent with most of the dynamical models. Although the center is difficult to locate, the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 18 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterly flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and Bret will likely continue on this same general motion until dissipation. This forecast in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is consistent with the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 11.6N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 12.4N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 13.2N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 14.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
