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| #892814 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 20.Jun.2017) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 The low-level circulation of Cindy is exposed well to the southwest of the main convective band that extends along most of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Data from the aircraft and marine observations indicate two areas of high winds. The first is located in the convection about 150 n mi northeast of the center, and the second is in a band about 60 n mi northwest of the center. Based on a blend of the aircraft and surface data, the initial intensity is set to 40 kt for this advisory. The central pressure of 999 mb is based on extrapolated data from the aircraft. Only limited strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours as strong shear continues over the system, with gradual weakening expected as the system approaches the coast and moves inland. The new NHC forecast is similar to much of the guidance and the intensity consensus. The circulation has been stationary as it has organized over the past 6 hours, but the model guidance suggests that a northwest motion should resume soon as Cindy interacts with an upper-level low situated to its northwest. This motion should continue through 24 hours, and then Cindy will recurve around the western edge of the subtropical ridge as it moves inland in 36 to 48 hours, and accelerates into the mid-latitude westerlies over the lower Mississippi Valley. The new NHC track has been adjusted a little to the left, following the latest trend in the guidance, and lies near or a little to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids. Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast. The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 25.7N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 26.6N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 27.4N 92.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 30.8N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 35.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
