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| #892862 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 PM 20.Jun.2017) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and nearby ship D5DY4 indicate that Cindy has strengthened to 50 kt based on peak SFMR and flight-level winds of 51 kt and 62 kt, respectively, and the ship report of winds near 50 kt. The NHC greatly appreciates the observations reported by ships C6CE8, ABVZ5, D5DY4, V7MO2, and WHED, which have been navigating through and near the center of Cindy for the past several hours. The initial motion estimate is 310/06 kt based on recent reconnaissance fixes. A northwestward motion is expected for the next 24 hours, after which Cindy is expected to recurve northward and then northeastward around the western portion of the strong subtropical ridge located over the southeastern United States. The 18Z model guidance has shifted slightly to the east, and the new NHC track has been adjusted a little to the east as well, close to the consensus track model TVCA. Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast. Although Cindy has strengthened this evening, little change in strength is expected for the next 12 hours or so, followed by gradual weakening thereafter due to the combination of strong vertical wind shear and abundance of dry mid-level preventing the development of significant inner-core convection. The new NHC intensity follows the trend of the previous advisory and is a little above the intensity consensus model IVCN. The 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast quadrants based on recon wind data, and observations from coastal and offshore buoy data. This has required and eastward extension of the Tropical Storm Warning along the north-central Gulf coast. The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 26.4N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 27.0N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 28.1N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 29.8N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 31.4N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 34.7N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
