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| #892962 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 21.Jun.2017) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 ...CINDY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 92.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued north and east of the mouth of the Mississippi River, including Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
