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| #893021 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 21.Jun.2017) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy continues to have the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this afternoon. However, the convective area just northwest of the center has become somewhat better organized based on coastal radar data, and the wind field has become smaller and more like a tropical cyclone. Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt, mainly in the northwestern quadrant. The initial motion is 315/8. There is again little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast, with landfall in southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana in less than 24 hours. After 24-36 hours Cindy, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United States. Given the continued presence of dry air near the center, as shown by experimental GOES-16 data, and its generally negative effects on the central convection, little change in strength is expected before landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become absorbed by a frontal system over the eastern United States just after 72 h. While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.2N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.3N 93.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 33.4N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 35.3N 88.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1800Z 38.5N 76.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
