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| #893097 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 21.Jun.2017) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy`s overall convective pattern has changed little since the previous advisory and still resembles a subtropical cyclone. However, earlier this evening a convective band wrapped around into the southwestern quadrant and produced a sustained wind of 56 kt, a gust of 65 kt, and a pressure of 991.9 mb at elevated oil rig KHQI. Using an adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent surface wind of 45 kt, and that value is used for the advisory intensity. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating the cyclone shortly. The initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt. The latest model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were made on the advisory cycle. Cindy should turn northward early Thursday morning as the cyclone moves through a break in the deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends from the Atlantic Ocean westward along the Gulf coast to Louisiana and Mississippi. Landfall is expected near the Louisiana-Texas border in 6-12 hours. After landfall occurs, Cindy is forecast to turn northward, and by 24-36 hours should accelerate northeastward across the Tennessee River Valley and merge with a frontal system by 72 h. Little change in strength is expected before Cindy makes landfall. Thereafter, gradual weakening should occur until the cyclone merges with a cold front over the eastern United States. The primary threat associated with Cindy will be heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and also well inland. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 28.6N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 30.1N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0000Z 32.2N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z 34.2N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0000Z 36.1N 85.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Stewart |
