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| #897027 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 31.Jul.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...EMILY LOCATED INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 82.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF BARTOW FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River southward to Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.2 West. Emily is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will continue to move farther inland over the west-central Florida peninsula this afternoon, and move across central Florida through tonight. Emily is forecast to move offshore of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression while it moves across the Florida peninsula this afternoon and tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), mainly southeast through south of the center. A wind gust to 38 mph was recently observed in Punta Gorda, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area through this afternoon. TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
