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| #897096 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 01.Aug.2017) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Radar and surface observations over east-central Florida indicate that Emily`s circulation has become quite elongated. Water vapor imagery also shows that drier mid-level air has moved over the northwestern portion of the circulation, which has limited the amount of convection near the center overnight. Some deep convection is noted along a trough axis well to the northeast of Emily. Earlier ASCAT data revealed a few 20-25 kt wind vectors just off the coast of Florida to the southeast of the center, so the initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory. Emily has been moving east-northeastward overnight. The cyclone remains embedded within the base of a mid-level trough that extends southwestward just off the southeastern United States coast. As this trough lifts out, Emily should accelerate northeastward between the western Atlantic ridge and another mid-level trough that will approach the southeast United States in a day or so. The global models shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the new NHC track has been nudged in that direction. The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain. Since Emily`s circulation has become less defined and is near a weak frontal zone, it is possible that that system will be absorbed within the larger trough axis. For now, the NHC forecast assumes that Emily will maintain its identity and have a chance to restrengthen over the western Atlantic. Although the shear is not forecast to be prohibitive during the next day or so, the current structure and nearby dry air suggest any deepening should be slow to occur. This is supported by the global models which do not indicate much intensification. The NHC forecast is a little below the previous advisory and is close to guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Emily is forecast to become extratropical in about 36 hours, but it could dissipate or become post-tropical sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 28.3N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 29.4N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 31.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 32.8N 73.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/0600Z 34.4N 70.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0600Z 37.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0600Z 38.5N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
