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| #897120 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 01.Aug.2017) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 After an earlier convective hiatus, recent satellite, radar, and lightning data indicate that thunderstorm activity has redeveloped within 20 nmi of the low-level center. Although the small circulation is somewhat elongated northeast-to-southwest, I am hesitant to discontinue advisories on Emily at this time in case the new convection persists. Buoy 41010 southeast of the center has been reporting sustained winds of 25-29 kt at a 4-meter elevation early this morning, but the initial intensity will remain at 25 kt since convection has only recently redeveloped. Emily has made the anticipated turn toward the northeast and is now moving 050/12 kt. The depression is embedded in southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward-moving, deep-layer trough and frontal system. Emily is forecast to accelerate northeastward over the western Atlantic through the remainder of the forecast period, remain well offshore of the southeast and east coasts of the United States. The new official forecast track lies close to the previous advisory track, and is between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. Emily is expected to remain ahead of a cold front for the next 24 hours or so, which could allow for some slight strengthening while the southwesterly vertical wind shear remains in the 10-15-kt range. Thereafter, the shear is forecast to steadily increase, exceeding 30 kt by 60 h, resulting in Emily becoming an extratropical or post-tropical remnant low by 36-48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory, and is similar to the the consensus model IVCN and guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 29.3N 78.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 32.1N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 33.9N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1200Z 35.3N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 37.6N 62.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z 39.0N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
