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| #897146 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 01.Aug.2017) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Deep convection has redeveloped and persisted near and over Emily`s low-level center since the previous advisory, with some weak banding features having developed in the eastern semicircle. Cirrus outflow has also pushed back westward over the center, an indication that the convection is feeding back into Emily`s circulation. An ASCAT pass around 1435Z revealed a closed circulation and surface winds of 30-31 kt just east of the center. Also, nearby buoy 41010 has been reporting 27-kt winds at a 4-meter elevation for the past several hours. Based on those wind data, the initial intensity has been nudged upward to 30 kt. Emily is moving 050/13 kt. The depression remains embedded in modest southwesterly flow ahead of deep-layer trough and frontal system along the U.S. east coast, and a general northeastward motion away from the United States is forecast for the next several days. The NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The aforementioned ASCAT wind data also indicated that Emily is embedded within a pre-frontal trough, and surface and upper-air data further indicate that a weak cold front lies within 60 nmi north and west of the depression. Given the proximity of the front and the fact the system is interacting with a sharp upper-level trough, Emily could transition to an extratropical low within the next 12-24h or even open up into an elongated surface trough. Owing to this possible weak baroclinic interaction, little change in strength is expected during the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 30.3N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 31.4N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 02/1800Z 33.1N 73.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/0600Z 34.6N 70.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1800Z 35.9N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1800Z 37.8N 61.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1800Z 39.3N 54.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
