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| #897620 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 06.Aug.2017) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 82.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City northward to the border of Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will pass north of Honduras tonight and early Monday, then approach the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula Monday afternoon. The system is forecast to move across Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for development, and the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone overnight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday afternoon or evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky |
