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| #897709 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 07.Aug.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 Visible satellite imagery continues to show a fairly well-organized tropical cyclone, although infrared images indicate some warming of the convective cloud tops. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the storm has a fairly broad inner core, which is consistent with the ragged eye-like feature noted on the visible imagery. The current intensity is kept at 50 kt based on a blend of SFMR and flight-level observations from the aircraft along with sampling considerations. Franklin has a well-defined, symmetric upper-level outflow pattern, and some strengthening is still expected prior to landfall. Although the cyclone could be near hurricane strength at landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula, the broad inner core of the system would argue against rapid intensification during the next 12 hours. Weakening will occur due to the passage over the Yucatan peninsula, and restrengthening over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche is forecast. Although northerly shear could inhibit strengthening somewhat, Franklin is predicted to become a hurricane before making landfall in mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus forecast. Based on center fixes from the aircraft along with geostationary and microwave imagery, the initial motion is northwestward or 310/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged. A mid-level high pressure area near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should force Franklin to take a west-northwestward to westward course for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
