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| #897790 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 08.Aug.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 Franklin`s center continues to move over the land mass of the Yucatan Peninsula. Since this area is relatively flat, only slow weakening is likely occurring. The morning sounding from Merida, located over northwest Yucatan, showed winds near 40 kt just above the surface. Assuming that these winds are coming down to the surface somewhere within the circulation, the initial intensity is estimated to be 40 kt. Some additional weakening should occur as long as the center remains over land. A restrengthening trend is forecast to begin when the center moves into the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight. Even though Franklin will be moving over very high SSTs while over the Bay of Campeche, the global models show northerly shear affecting the cyclone as it nears the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico. Although this shear could impede intensification, Franklin could be near hurricane intensity when it nears the coast late Wednesday. Therefore, it is prudent to maintain the Hurricane Watch. The motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of Franklin over the next couple of days. This should cause the tropical cyclone to move west-northwestward to westward until its second landfall. The official track forecast is similar to the ECMWF solution and to the previous NHC forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 19.6N 89.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 20.0N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 09/1200Z 20.3N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 20.4N 95.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 20.3N 97.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
