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| #897844 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 08.Aug.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 The center of Franklin moved off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula soon after 2100 UTC, and Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft arrived not too long after that to begin sampling the cyclone`s circulation. The planes have observed increasing deep convection, and the NOAA aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 52 kt within the convection east of the center. The SFMR instruments have measured surface winds higher than 50 kt, but these values were either rain flagged or likely influenced by shoaling effects in the shallow shelf waters off the Yucatan coast. Accounting for these considerations, Franklin`s initial intensity is raised to 45 kt. The Air Force plane also reported that the central pressure has fallen to 996 mb. Franklin is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, and mid-level ridging located over the northern Gulf of Mexico should force the cyclone to turn westward by Wednesday morning. The track guidance suggests that a south-of-due-west motion is possible after 24 hours as Franklin`s circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Mexico, and the cyclone`s center is expected to cross the coast Wednesday night or early Thursday. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous forecast, accounting for the southward bend noted in the track models. The waters of the Bay of Campeche are around 30 deg C and by themselves should support further intensification. One inhibiting factor for strengthening could be a gradual increase in northerly shear over the system up until landfall, yet many of the intensity models show Franklin intensifying in spite of the shear. In fact, the regional hurricane models depict Franklin reaching an intensity of 70-75 kt in 24 hours. Given that the storm is already producing 45-kt winds after just moving offshore, the NHC forecast lies closer to the more aggressive models and shows Franklin reaching hurricane intensity in about 24 hours. Regardless, there is an increasing likelihood that Franklin will be able to reach hurricane strength before landfall, and accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for portions of the state of Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 20.3N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 20.4N 95.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 20.0N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0000Z 19.5N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
