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| #897867 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 09.Aug.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC showed 700-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt about 40 n mi northeast of the center, and surface wind estimates from the SFMR of 50-55 kt in the same area. Satellite imagery has shown increased organization, with a well-defined convective band that yields satellite intensity estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is now 280/11, a little faster than before. A mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northwest of Franklin should keep the cyclone moving generally westward for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a south of west motion as Franklin`s circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The new forecast track, which is nudged a little north of the previous track, has the center making landfall in the Mexican state of Veracruz just past the 24 hour point, followed by a motion into the mountains of eastern Mexico. The new track is in good agreement with the various consensus models. Franklin is crossing the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and continued strengthening appears likely. Indeed, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40-50 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening during the next 24 hours. However, the large-scale models forecast moderate northeasterly shear to develop during that time, which may slow intensification below rapid levels. The new intensity forecast calls for Franklin to become a hurricane in 12 h and reach a peak intensity of 70 kt near the time of landfall. This forecast again lies close to the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast as Franklin moves into the mountains of eastern Mexico, and the low-level center is likely to dissipate completely by 48 h. It should be noted that some large-scale models re-form the low-level center over the Pacific as the remnants of Franklin reach that basin in about 72 h. The initial 34-kt wind radii were revised based on a combination of aircraft, surface, and scatterometer data. However, Franklin is expected to increase in size, and this requires a northward extension of the Tropical Storm Warning on the eastern coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 20.4N 92.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
