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| #897891 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 09.Aug.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 Franklin continues to become better organized, with increasing inner-core convection and banding features. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Observations from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure is falling, which presages intensification. Radar observations from the NOAA aircraft indicate that a well-defined eyewall has not yet developed, however. The tropical cyclone will continue to traverse SSTs of near 30 deg C until landfall, with northerly shear possibly impeding strengthening. However, the only evidence of this shear at this time is a slight restriction of the upper-level outflow over the northern portion of the circulation. Given the otherwise favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, additional strengthening is forecast up to landfall. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance. Center fixes from the aircraft give a generally westward motion, or 270/11 kt. A large mid-level high pressure system to the north of Franklin should maintain the generally westward track until landfall in eastern Mexico. A slightly more southward motion could occur while the center crosses the coast, due to interaction with the topography of Mexico. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 20.2N 93.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 20.1N 95.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 19.7N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
