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| #898451 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 15.Aug.2017) TCDAT3 Hurricane Gert Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 After a period of intensification several hours ago, recent satellite images show that the cloud pattern has deteriorated a little bit. The eye is no longer discernible, and the center is now located to the west of an area of very deep convection. Dvorak numbers still support an initial intensity of 65 kt. Gert has an opportunity to gather some strength in the next day or so after recurvature. The new NHC forecast is not as aggressive as the previous one, and it follows very closely the intensity consensus. Only the HWRF model significantly strengthens the cyclone. After two days, Gert will be completely embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and should become a post-tropical cyclone. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 360 degrees at 10 kt. Gert is being steered northward by the flow around the western edge of the subtropical ridge. The cyclone should then turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed later today as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope. Swells from Gert are expected to spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States during the next few days. These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local National Weather Service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 31.8N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 33.3N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 35.5N 68.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 37.8N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 40.0N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 46.5N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z 52.0N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
