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| #898663 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 17.Aug.2017) TCDAT3 Hurricane Gert Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 The convective structure of Gert has rapidly deteriorated during the morning hours due to very cold SSTs and vertical wind shear exceeding 40 kt. The hurricane still has a little deep convection in the northeast quadrant, but the low-level circulation appears to have become somewhat elongated along a south-southwest, north-northeast axis. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased, and the initial intensity has been decreased accordingly, to 70 kt. Since there is a lack of recent scatterometer or buoy observations near the center, the intensity estimate is a little more uncertain than normal. Gert continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the initial motion estimate is 060/35 kt. Very little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast. The cyclone is quickly becoming extratropical, and the transition process should complete later today. Gert should continue to steadily spin down while moving quickly toward the northeast for the next day or so ahead of a large extratropical low currently centered near the Gulf of St. Lawrence. An interaction of the two cyclones should result in the eventual absorption or dissipation of Gert shortly after 48 h. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated guidance from NOAA`s Ocean Prediction Center. Swells from Gert should continue to affect the coast of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 43.2N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 46.0N 43.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 18/1200Z 49.3N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0000Z 51.3N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1200Z 52.4N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
