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| #8998 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:28 AM 17.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 1500Z FRI SEP 17 2004 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 71.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......175NE 150SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 150SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 71.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 70.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 72.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.2N 73.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.8N 74.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.0N 74.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 29.2N 77.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 29.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 71.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
