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| #899821 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 26.Aug.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Harvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas. Doppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since there are no surface observations near the center, this is the intensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the SHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey's circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could weaken at a slower rate than shown here. Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree that any motion will be quite slow. Key Messages: 1. While Harvey's winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast. 2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through Thursday. Please heed the advice of local officials and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 29.1N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila |
