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| #9000 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 17.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 1500Z FRI SEP 17 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 35.5W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 90SE 50SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 35.5W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.9N 37.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.7N 38.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.6N 40.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 27.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 35.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
