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| #900070 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:02 PM 27.Aug.2017) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 100 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 97.2W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM NW OF VICTORIA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor to Sargent Texas Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is occurring in southeastern Texas, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of this area. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 97.2 West. Harvey is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow southeastward to east-southeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center will move very near the coast of southeastern Texas on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily over water to the east and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the middle and upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches in this region. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life- threatening flooding, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this dire and life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the Texas Hill Country, and farther east through southwest and central Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to High Island including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the center and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist in areas of onshore flow within the warning area during the next day or so. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle and upper Texas coast into southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
