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| #900109 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 27.Aug.2017) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 80.0 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow northward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move slowly toward the South Carolina coast tonight and Monday. The system is forecast to move near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and along the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday. Satellite wind data and buoy observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The system is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and gradually become better organized, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night through Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
