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| #900141 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:38 PM 27.Aug.2017) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...DISTURBANCE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 80.3W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow northward motion is expected overnight and Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move slowly offshore of the South Carolina coast tonight and Monday, and then move along or near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or Monday. The disturbance is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to be well organized, but the center of circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night through Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with isolated possible maximum amounts of 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
