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| #900177 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 27.Aug.2017) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 80.8W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 80.8 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow and erratic motion is forecast through early Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Monday and move along the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday. A wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h) has recently been reported at NOAA's Gray's Reef buoy off the Georgia coast. Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms remain organized, but the center of circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night and Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
