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| #900278 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:47 AM 28.Aug.2017) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NEARLY STATIONARY AND POORLY ORGANIZED FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 80.7W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the poorly defined circulation associated with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 80.7 West. The system has been moving little, and a slow and erratic motion is forecast through this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts later today and move along the North Carolina coast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday morning and then become post-tropical by Tuesday night. Although satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms show some signs of organization, the center of circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the upper South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
