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| #900369 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 28.Aug.2017) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DISTURBANCE POORLY ORGANIZED... ...CHANCES TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ARE DIMINISHING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the area of minimum pressure associated with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 79.9 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will move over or near the coast of South Carolina tonight and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are over water well to the east of the area of minimum pressure. Although the disturbance has not become any better organized today, there is still potential for the system to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. After that time, the low should begin to intensify as an extratropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) to the east of the area of minimum pressure. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible tonight through midday Tuesday along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
