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| #900372 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 28.Aug.2017) TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has been flying through the disturbance and so far the aircraft data depicts a sharp trough with a few spots of tropical-storm-force winds east of the trough axis. The overall cloud pattern has not become any better organized, and most of the weather is located in bands well to the northeast and southeast of the trough. With the shear increasing, the chances for the system to become a tropical storm are diminishing, but if it does occur it should happen within the next 24 hours or so while the system moves near the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Regardless of whether tropical cyclone formation occurs, tropical storm conditions are still expected in the warning area in North Carolina. Beyond 24 hours, the system should acquire extratropical characteristics. However, the exact timing of the transition is uncertain since the cyclone will still be moving over warm waters. In reality, we can not track a center of circulation that does not exist and NHC is following an area of minimum pressure. This makes the initial motion highly uncertain and the best estimate is toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 10 kt. The system is already embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a trough, and this pattern will steer the disturbance toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 32.2N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 33.4N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 29/1800Z 35.6N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/0600Z 38.0N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1800Z 40.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1800Z 43.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z 51.6N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
