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| #900525 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 29.Aug.2017) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 77.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM WSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Cape Lookout, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 77.2 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and it is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and east-northeast during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move near the coast of North Carolina today and then move away from the coast over the western Atlantic Ocean tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength today, and the chances for the system to become a tropical cyclone continue to decrease. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected over portions of North Carolina today. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen at sea and become a hurricane-force extratropical low over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday evening. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches along the northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia coasts into the Delmarva through Wednesday. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
