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| #900528 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 29.Aug.2017) TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Surface observations near and offshore the southern coast of North Carolina indicate that an elongated circulation and pressure minimum are located over Onslow Bay, but satellite imagery still shows no signs of a well-defined center. In addition, a sharp wind shift, associated with a front, extends northeastward across Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Outer Banks. Maximum winds remain 35 kt for continuity`s sake since there have been no recent observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds. The disturbance has so far failed to become a tropical cyclone, and since vertical shear is 30-40 kt and increasing, it appears that it now has a low chance of doing so before it becomes extratropical later today. Baroclinic energy from the approaching shortwave trough should cause the extratropical cyclone to strengthen significantly during the next day or two, and it is forecast to be producing hurricane-force winds over the northwestern Atlantic by 36 hours. Gradual weakening is expected after that time until the cyclone is absorbed on day 5. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts continue to incorporate guidance provided by NOAA`s Ocean Prediction Center. The disturbance is accelerating toward the northeast with an initial motion of 045/15 kt, and it is likely to clear the Outer Banks into the western Atlantic by late this afternoon. The system is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and it will be interacting with a shortwave trough moving east of the Great Lakes during the next couple of days. This will cause the disturbance to continue accelerating toward the northeast or east-northeast over the north Atlantic for the next 4 days. The cyclone is expected to be absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 34.4N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/0000Z 36.6N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 38.8N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z 40.4N 63.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z 41.8N 58.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1200Z 45.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 51.0N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Berg |
