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| #900591 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 29.Aug.2017) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...HARVEY CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST DUMPING CATASTROPHIC RAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 94.3W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Holly Beach to Morgan City Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Holly Beach to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar to west of Holly Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Port O'Connor to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City to Grand Isle Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was estimated from data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 94.3 West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. On the forecast track, the broad circulation center of Harvey is expected to move inland over the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before the center crosses the coast, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. Galveston recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph and a gust to 54 mph. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches to the north and east of Houston from far east Texas into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals will reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley. A preliminary report from a rain gauge has broken the Texas tropical cyclone rainfall record. The Cedar Bayou gauge, east of Highlands, Texas, has reported 51.88 inches of rain as of 3 PM CDT. This total is higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 ft San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist during the next day or so. Tropical storms conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 24 hours. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today from extreme southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and coastal Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
