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| #900882 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:35 PM 30.Aug.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Harvey has continued to weaken since this afternoon as the center has moved farther inland over Louisiana. Surface observations indicate that winds along the northern Gulf coast have decreased, and the system became a tropical depression in the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. Harvey should continue to gradually weaken as the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate over the Ohio Valley within 72 hours. Harvey is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt. The cyclone should turn northeastward around the northwestern portion of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from the western Atlantic across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern is forecast to take Harvey across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys during the next couple of days. It should be noted that despite Harvey's weakening, heavy rainfall and flooding are forecast to occur along the path of Harvey during the next few days, but its faster forward speed should keep subsequent rainfall amounts well below what occurred along the northwest Gulf coast. This is last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Additional information can also be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service office. The National Hurricane Center would like to thank all the men and women that have worked countless hours at local National Weather Service Forecast offices along the Gulf coast providing life-saving warnings and information during the past week, on top of preparing their family and homes for the storm. The center would also like to acknowledge the dedication of the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft crews that flew numerous missions into Harvey. In addition, NHC thanks the staff at the Weather Prediction Center, who led efforts to coordinate forecasts of the historic flooding event, NWS River Forecast Centers that provided flood guidance, and the Storm Prediction Center, that coordinated tornado forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life- threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/ Port Arthur, and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials, and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. 3. The Weather Prediction Center will issue public advisories on Harvey as long as it remains a rainfall threat. These advisories can continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website and at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 31.7N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
