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| #901532 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:11 AM 05.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 Deep convection associated with the disturbance in the central Atlantic has become more organized overnight. Banding features are starting to develop as seen in the first-light visible pictures from the GOES and METEOSAT imagery. Additionally, the ASCAT scatterometers sampled the system at 1140Z and 1234Z, showing that a well-defined - though slightly elongated - center had formed. The maximum believable winds from ASCAT were 35 kt. Thus advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Jose, the 10th named storm of the Atlantic season. With no history on the center location, the motion is estimated to be west-northwest at 11 kt. Jose should move toward the west or west-northwest for the next three to four days at a slightly faster rate of forward speed as it moves south of the deep-layer Azores-Bermuda high. In about four to five days, Jose should turn toward the northwest and slow as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the high. The model guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and the official forecast is based upon a blend of the ECMWF-GFS-UKMET deterministic and ensemble model output. The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant mid-level moisture. By days four and five, however, the vertical shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to its west. Thus the official intensity forecast show steady intensification until day three, then remains flat through day five. This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus technique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long forecast range. The ASCAT observations indicate that the tropical-storm-force winds extend out about 40 nm from the center in the southeastern quadrant. The official size forecast suggests a gradual increase in size, based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus approach. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 12.3N 39.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 12.8N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 13.4N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 13.9N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 14.4N 49.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 16.0N 55.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 18.5N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea |
