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| #901561 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 05.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 A distinct curved band of deep convection wraps more than half way around the center of Jose in its southern semicircle. Due to the improved structure, the Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB have increased to a 3.0 and 2.0, respectively. A blend of these input gives a 40 kt intensity for the initial time. Jose`s current motion is assessed to be west at 11 kt, though this is uncertain due to not knowing the initial position with much confidence. Jose should move toward the west or west-northwest for the next three to four days at a slightly faster rate of forward speed as it moves south of the deep-layer Azores-Bermuda high. In about four to five days, Jose should turn toward the northwest and slow as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the high. The official track forecast is primarily based upon a blend of the ECMWF-UKMET model output and is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory. The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant mid-level moisture. By days four and five, however, the vertical shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to its west. Thus the official intensity forecast shows steady intensification until day three, then decreases slightly to day five. This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus technique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long forecast ranges. No new observations have been available, so I have let it ride for the initial tropical-storm-wind radii. The official size forecast indicates a gradual increase in size, based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus approach. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.5N 40.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 12.9N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.6N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 14.3N 48.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 14.9N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 16.5N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 18.7N 59.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 22.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea |
