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| #901604 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 05.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 Jose continues to gradually strengthen. Geostationary and microwave satellite images indicate that the center of the system is located on the north side of the main area of deep convection. Fragmented curved bands also exist to the north of the center. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt, based on a recent ASCAT pass. This wind speed estimate is also in agreement with a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB and similar ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Satellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 12 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the south and southwest sides of a subtropical high. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a weakness in the ridge. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day period on when and where Jose makes the northwest turn. The NHC official track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus models. The tropical storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next few days, and Jose will likely become a hurricane in about 24 hours and could be near major hurricane strength by 72 hours. Thereafter, an increase in northerly shear and some drier air should end the strengthening trend and cause some weakening. The NHC intensity follows the ICON and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.3N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 12.8N 43.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 13.5N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 14.2N 49.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 14.9N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 16.7N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 19.2N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
